Gemüt&Lou · Campaign Data

Win Number & Vote-Gap Calculator

Set the assumptions; the gap and the levers update live. Pre-loaded with verified figures for HD-62, HD-63, and the Clermont County Commissioner race. Every default carries its source. Nothing is saved — change freely.

1 · Set the race

2 · Set the target

3 · Democratic baseline

%

4 · Persuasion efficiency

%
1-in-3 (33%) is the standard planning assumption. Persuasion universe = deficit ÷ this rate.
Source: The Campaign Workshop, vote-deficit method.

The gap

Votes needed beyond the baseline
—
Projected turnout (votes cast)—
Win number—
Expected base Democratic vote—
Persuasion universe (all-persuasion list size)—

Close the gap — three levers

Enter the pool sizes from 2026OhioVoters.db when you have them (R2 drop-off, swing universe, R6 unregistered). Leave blank to skip. Yields are adjustable.

Mobilization — drop-off Democrats

Base Democrats who skipped the comparable election. Cheapest votes: near 1-for-1.

Turnout lift → delivers —

Persuasion — swing & soft voters

Unaffiliated and soft-Republican voters. Yield = success rate set at left.

Success rate 33% → delivers —

Registration — eligible unregistered

New registrations. Yield = share who register, turn out, and vote D.

Net yield → delivers —
What's solid, and what's an assumption
  • Solid: registration (GL roster), turnout and baseline (official BOE / state-certified canvasses).
  • Assumption: "base Dem share" is recent Democratic performance, not a hard floor — it bundles in some persuasion. Refine with a precinct-level performance index.
  • Commissioner only: the 2022 seat ran unopposed, so the baseline is a performance index of contested county-wide races, not the seat itself. Default 29.1% (midterm); band runs 28%–31.7%.
  • Lever yields are planning estimates — adjust to your own contact/conversion data.